Expected Value of Lotteries: What Do You Get Back for €100?
Have you ever wondered how much money you actually get back from different lotteries? We've calculated the mathematical expected value for 11 of the world's largest lotteries – from 6aus49 to Powerball. The result: You lose between €40 and €55 for every €100 invested.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected value is a mathematical concept that tells you how much money you can expect to get back on average from a bet. The formula is simple:
Formula
EV = Σ (Wahrscheinlichkeit × Gewinn)
Summed across all possible prize tiers
An EV of 50% means: For every euro invested, you get 50 cents back on average. Under normal conditions, lottery EV typically ranges from 45-60% – this is the "house edge" that funds the lottery operators. (With very high jackpots, EV can theoretically exceed 100%, but more on that later.)
Expected Value Comparison: €100 Investment
What happens when you invest €100 in different lotteries? Lotteries are ranked by: 1) Total EV, 2) Jackpot odds (easier odds = better rank when EV is equal).
SuperEnalotto
Italy
Jackpot Odds
1:622,614,630
Jackpot EV%
0.3%
Total EV%
60%
Return/€100
60% of stakes go to the prize fund since the 2016 reform
BonoLoto
Spain
Jackpot Odds
1:13,983,816
Jackpot EV%
4.4%
Total EV%
55%
Return/€100
El Gordo
Spain
Jackpot Odds
1:31,625,100
Jackpot EV%
9.5%
Total EV%
55%
Return/€100
La Primitiva
Spain
Jackpot Odds
1:139,838,160
Jackpot EV%
0.5%
Total EV%
55%
Return/€100
France
Jackpot Odds
1:19,068,840
Jackpot EV%
4.8%
Total EV%
54%
Return/€100
Payout rate 54.35% since May 2026
UK Lotto
United Kingdom
Jackpot Odds
1:22,528,738
Jackpot EV%
4.4%
Total EV%
50%
Return/€100
One line plays in two rounds since June 2026
Germany
Jackpot Odds
1:139,838,160
Jackpot EV%
0.6%
Total EV%
50%
Return/€100
Eurojackpot
Europe
Jackpot Odds
1:139,838,160
Jackpot EV%
3.6%
Total EV%
50%
Return/€100
EuroMillions
Europe (9 countries)
Jackpot Odds
1:139,838,160
Jackpot EV%
4.9%
Total EV%
50%
Return/€100
Jackpot Odds
1:290,472,336
Jackpot EV%
3.4%
Total EV%
45%
Return/€100
$5 a play since April 2025; pre-tax, cash value ~60% of jackpot
USA
Jackpot Odds
1:292,201,338
Jackpot EV%
3.4%
Total EV%
45%
Return/€100
Pre-tax, cash value ~60% of jackpot
Summary: Your Expected Loss
-€40
SuperEnalotto
-€45
Spanish Lotteries
-€50
6aus49, Eurojackpot, EuroMillions, UK Lotto
-€55
US Lotteries (pre-tax)
Based on official payout ratios from lottery operators
What is Jackpot EV%?
Jackpot EV% shows what percentage of your total EV% depends solely on the jackpot. The formula:
Jackpot EV% = (1 / Jackpot-Odds) × Start-Jackpot / Ticketpreis × 100
A high Jackpot EV% means a larger portion of your "expected return" depends on the nearly impossible jackpot. A low Jackpot EV% means more value comes from smaller, more achievable prizes. The starting jackpot is the guaranteed minimum; BonoLoto and La Primitiva have none, so for them we use the median of what the jackpot paid in our archive right after a win.
Low Jackpot EV%
6aus49 (0.6%), SuperEnalotto (0.3%): 99% of EV% comes from smaller prizes → more "action", frequent small wins
✓ Flatter payout structure
High Jackpot EV%
El Gordo (9.5%), EuroMillions (4.9%): More of EV% is in the jackpot → fewer small wins, but "bigger dreams"
✓ Top-heavy structure
Detailed Calculation: Eurojackpot
Let's look at how the expected value is calculated for Eurojackpot. Each prize tier contributes differently to the total value:
| Tier | Odds | Avg. Prize | EV/Ticket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5+2 | 1:139,838,160 | €10,000,000 | €0.072 |
| 5+1 | 1:6,991,908 | €500,000 | €0.072 |
| 5+0 | 1:3,107,515 | €100,000 | €0.032 |
| 4+2 | 1:621,503 | €5,000 | €0.008 |
| 4+1 | 1:31,075 | €200 | €0.006 |
| 4+0 | 1:13,811 | €100 | €0.007 |
| 3+2 | 1:10,344 | €50 | €0.005 |
| 2+2 | 1:672 | €20 | €0.030 |
| 3+1 | 1:517 | €18 | €0.035 |
| 3+0 | 1:230 | €15 | €0.065 |
| 1+2 | 1:128 | €10 | €0.078 |
| 2+1 | 1:42 | €8 | €0.190 |
| Total EV per €2 Ticket | ~€1.00 | ||
This means: From every €2 ticket, you get €1 back on average – a 50% loss. With 50 tickets for €100, you expect a return of about €50.
SuperEnalotto: Highest Payout, Hardest Jackpot
Since the reform of 2 February 2016, a SuperEnalotto line costs €1 and 60% of stakes go into the prize fund – more than any other lottery in this comparison. Before, a line cost €0.50 and a much smaller share of stakes went to prizes.
The jackpot, on the other hand, is still the hardest of any major lottery at 1:622,614,630. This means:
- You'd need to buy about 600 million tickets to statistically hit the jackpot once
- So the high return comes mostly from the lower tiers, not the jackpot – in line with its low Jackpot EV% of 0.3%
Fun Fact: If you buy one SuperEnalotto ticket every week, you would statistically win the jackpot in about 12 million years. That's longer than all of human history!
UK Lotto: Favorable Mechanics
UK Lotto has some interesting mechanics that set it apart from other lotteries:
- Since 10 June 2026 a £2 line plays in two rounds for the same jackpot: two shots at 1:45 million, 1:22.5 million a draw night
- "Must Be Won" draw after 5 consecutive rollovers without a jackpot winner – money then flows to lower tiers
- Matching 2 numbers paid a free Lucky Dip worth £2 until June 2026, and now pays £1 in cash
Under operator Allwyn's game procedures for the new game, 50% of Lotto sales go back to players as prizes on average – as much as 6aus49 or Eurojackpot, but less than in Spain or Italy. What the two rounds shifted per prize tier is worked through here: UK Lotto now draws twice a night.
When Does Expected Value Become Positive?
Theoretically, EV can exceed 100% with very high jackpots. However, the exact thresholds are difficult to determine and depend on many factors:
⚠️ Factors Affecting the "Break-Even" Point
- •Cash vs. Annuity (US): Jackpots are advertised as annuities, cash value is only ~60%
- •Taxes: US winnings are heavily taxed (up to 37% federal + state taxes)
- •Jackpot sharing: With high jackpots, more people buy tickets → higher probability of sharing
- •Caps & Rolldowns: EuroMillions has a €250M cap with rolldown mechanics
Rough estimates for theoretically positive EV (pre-tax, without sharing):
Eurojackpot / EuroMillions
Above €140-180M*
Powerball ($2)
Above $800M+ (Cash)*
*These values are rough estimates, not precise calculations. Actual thresholds vary significantly. Mega Millions has cost $5 a play since April 2025, so its threshold is correspondingly higher.
Key Takeaways
Expect to Lose
For €100 invested, you lose €40-55 on average. That's the entertainment cost.
50-60% Payout in Europe
6aus49, Eurojackpot and EuroMillions officially pay out 50% of stakes, the Spanish games 55%, SuperEnalotto 60%.
SuperEnalotto: Outlier at the Top
Since 2016, 60% of stakes go back as prizes – more than anywhere else in this comparison. At 1:622M, the jackpot is still the hardest to hit.
Play Responsibly
Lottery is entertainment, not investment. Only spend money you can afford to lose.
And in real draws?
The figures above follow from the official payout rates. What single lines actually got back in real draws, at the prizes paid and the prices of the day, is in our data study: What lotteries actually pay back. SuperEnalotto comes out on top there too: its typical line got back 34 cents per euro since 2016, more than in any of the other seven lotteries – but far less than 60%, because much of the payout goes to the top tiers.
🤯Mathematical Curiosity
You may have noticed that 6aus49, Eurojackpot, EuroMillions, and La Primitiva all have the same jackpot odds: 1:139,838,160. This is a fascinating mathematical coincidence!
C(49,6) × 10 = 13,983,816 × 10 = 139,838,160
C(50,5) × C(12,2) = 2,118,760 × 66 = 139,838,160
Despite completely different game formats, they yield exactly the same probability!
Check Your Numbers at LottoROI
Curious how your numbers would have performed historically? Check them against decades of draw data and find your best match!
Check Numbers NowData Sources: EV values are based on official payout rates (lotto.de and Eurojackpot/EuroMillions: 50%; SELAE rules for La Primitiva, BonoLoto and El Gordo: 55%; FDJ Loto: 54.35% since May 2026; superenalotto.net: 60% since 2016; Allwyn for UK Lotto: 50%). For Powerball and Mega Millions we estimate 45%: around half of sales is returned as prizes, but the jackpot counts at annuity value and the cash option is smaller. Actual returns vary with jackpot levels and the number of winners.
Correction: In September 2026 we rechecked every figure. SuperEnalotto was listed at around 35%, its payout before the 2016 reform; the Spanish games at 50% instead of 55%; French Loto at 50% instead of 54%; Mega Millions with the old $2 game, and UK Lotto with one round instead of two. The starting jackpots of BonoLoto, La Primitiva and El Gordo were set too high.
Disclaimer: The "positive EV" thresholds are rough estimates and don't account for all factors (taxes, jackpot sharing, cash vs. annuity). Lottery is a game of chance – play responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. LottoROI is not affiliated with official lottery operators.