What Lotteries Actually Pay Back: 3,000 Lines in Every Draw of 8 Lotteries
Lotteries like to say they pay out half of what they take in. For the lottery as a whole that is true – but what does a single line get back? We took 3,000 random lines per lottery and played every one of them in every draw of eight lotteries, at the prizes those draws really paid and the ticket prices of the day. No model and no brochure averages: just what the lines would have won, and what they would have cost.
How we measured it
For each lottery we drew 3,000 random lines and played every one of them in every draw our archive has verified prizes for. A line wins what that draw actually paid in its prize tier, and costs what a line cost on that day. None of it is estimated: every cent is a prize a real draw paid.
That gives two figures per lottery. The typical line is the middle one of the 3,000: half got back less, half more. The average line is the mean, and it sits higher, because a few lines hit a big prize tier. Which one matters depends on whether you look at what usually happens or at the exception.
What each euro brought back
Bar: the typical line. Tick: the average line. The scale ends at 50 cents, the share of stakes LOTTO 6aus49 pays out in prizes overall.
- SuperEnalotto34c · Ø 40c
- LOTTO 6aus4931c · Ø 42c
- UK Lotto30p · Ø 31p
- French Loto26c · Ø 29c
- La Primitiva25c · Ø 32c
- BonoLoto24c · Ø 33c
- Eurojackpot18c · Ø 29c
- EuroMillions16c · Ø 16c
| Lottery | Draws | Stake per line | Typical line won | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SuperEnalotto today's game, since the 2016 reform | 1,814 | €1,814 | €623 | 5 / 3,000 |
LOTTO 6aus49 today's game, since May 2013 | 1,396 | €1,521 | €465 | 82 / 3,000 |
UK Lotto 6 from 59, since October 2015 | 1,173 | £2,286 | £678 | 14 / 3,000 |
French Loto today's game, since March 2017 | 1,493 | €3,285 | €849 | 11 / 3,000 |
La Primitiva verified prizes from December 2004 | 2,462 | €2,462 | €608 | 84 / 3,000 |
BonoLoto verified prizes from 2010 | 4,797 | €2,399 | €584 | 54 / 3,000 |
Eurojackpot since launch in 2012 | 991 | €1,982 | €357 | 5 / 3,000 |
EuroMillions verified prizes only from late 2024 | 180 | €450 | €71 | 0 / 3,000 |
SuperEnalotto paid back the most, EuroMillions the least. The periods differ in length because each lottery only counts from the day its current game began, or from when our prize data is verified. That makes the stakes incomparable, but not the return per euro.
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Why a third, not a half
6aus49 pays out 50% of its stakes in prizes, SuperEnalotto 60% since 2016. Yet the typical line got back about a third at most, anywhere. The difference is in the top tiers: a large share of the money goes to the jackpot and the five- and six-number prizes, and a single line almost never hits those. What reaches it are the small tiers, and they are only part of the payout.
The few lines that did hit a big tier pull the average up. The best of 3,000 Eurojackpot lines won €631,081 since 2012 on a €1,982 stake; the typical one won €357. That is why the average line got back 29 cents and the typical line 18 cents.
EuroMillions comes last for two reasons. Its lower tiers pay little against €2.50 a line, and our window is short: 180 draws since December 2024, too few for any of the 3,000 lines to hit a big tier. None got its stake back; the best reached 68 cents per euro.
70 years of LOTTO 6aus49
For 6aus49 our archive of verified prizes goes back to 1956, through three versions of the game, two currencies and seven prices per line: from 50 pfennigs through 1.50 marks and 75 cents to €1.20 today. Mark amounts are converted to euros at the fixed rate of 1.95583, without adjusting for inflation, on both sides alike.
| Game | Draws | Typical line | Average | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
6 from 49 with the Zusatzzahl 1956–1995 | 2,842 | 29 cents | 50 cents | 183 / 3,000 |
with Zusatzzahl and Superzahl 1991–2013 | 2,287 | 32 cents | 47 cents | 127 / 3,000 |
with the Superzahl (today) 2013–2026 | 1,396 | 31 cents | 42 cents | 82 / 3,000 |
All of it 1956–2026 | 6,525 | 32 cents | 46 cents | 196 / 3,000 |
The typical line got back around 30 cents per euro in every version of the game; 70 years of rule changes hardly moved it. What does move with time is the average: the longer the game is played, the more lines eventually hit one of the big tiers, and the closer the average gets to the full payout. Across all 6,525 draws, 1 line in 15 ended up ahead. The typical line would have staked €3,837 and won €1,214.
The periods overlap from 1991 to 1995: Saturday gained the Superzahl in December 1991, Wednesday only in December 1995. Until 2000 the Wednesday game also had two draws, A and B, on one stake.
What it means
Lotto is a game you pay for, and these figures show the price. Play every draw for years and you will very likely lose two thirds of your stake or more, whichever numbers you pick; whether a lottery pays back well or badly only changes how much. What you buy is the chance of the big win, not a return.
And it remains a look back: every draw is random, no number is due, and past results say nothing about the next draw. If you play, stake only what you are happy to spend on entertainment.
Method and data
- Lines: 3,000 per lottery, drawn at random and reproducibly, with the extra numbers (Superzahl, Euro numbers, Lucky Stars) where the game asks for them. The same samples sit behind the rank our number checker shows.
- Prizes: what each draw paid in the tier a line hit, as the organiser published it. Draws without verified prizes are left out. El Gordo, Powerball and Mega Millions are missing because our archive does not yet have complete prize data for them.
- Stake: the price of one line on the day of the draw, without fees or add-on games (Spiel 77, Joker, Étoile+). Where the price includes a national raffle (EuroMillions: My Million or El Millón; French Loto: the Loto code), that raffle's prizes are not counted. Where one line played two draws a night (6aus49 on Wednesdays until 2000, UK Lotto since June 2026), the stake counts once.
- Prices: lotto.de, the lottery companies' release on the 5,000th draw (2011) and lottobay.de (6aus49); lotto-berlin.de (Eurojackpot); fdj.fr (French Loto); tirage-gagnant.com (EuroMillions); consumer.es, confirmed by the Reintegro refunds in the archive (La Primitiva, BonoLoto); Italian press coverage of the 2016 reform (SuperEnalotto); national-lottery.co.uk (UK Lotto). Payout rates: lotto.de, superenalotto.net.
- As of 22 September 2026. Download all figures (JSON)
The theoretical side of the same question, worked out from the official payout rates: Expected value of lotteries.
And your numbers?
Check your own numbers against the same draws: what they would have cost and won, and where they stand among 3,000 random lines.
Check NumbersDisclaimer: Gambling can be addictive. Play responsibly. Participation from 18 years. This article is for informational purposes only.